I wonder if UBI might be an admittedly dark and cynical way to facilitate a possible AI transition. If e.g. full self driving for trucks is perfected in the US within the next three years and more than six million truckers loose their job at once, there is realistically no way to retrain this cohort. Using taxes on AI revenue to facilitate (somewhat universal) BI for that group, together with very liberal drug policies might keep social peace. Granted, not a satisfying live, but preferable to the alternatives...
What could possibly by dark and cynical about that? This is the only way we can possibly deal with mass unemployment.
Also, 6 million people forced to spend their waking lives driving trucks is not a good thing. The thing that's good about that is the income they get from it. If we create enough wealth to give them the income without the truck driving... We won? That's the goal here. That's what the economy is _for_. Employment is the way the economy has always achieved that, but it doesn't meant employment is the goal, it's a means to an end.
I was thinking that everyone would suddenly become a "truck driver" overnight, just so they can sign up for the free money.
We need to keep in mind the scope and scale of the environments in which this UBI experiment is being tried in.
The temporary success or failure of the UBI experiment seems entirely dependent on whether the country is a major currency, a manufacturing base, a service oriented economy, etc, etc, etc. and it doesn't seem likely to work for everyone, or for any individual small nation for an indefinite period of time.
> there is realistically no way to retrain this cohort. [truck drivers]
I disagree. They had to attend class and pass a test to get a CDL. They were trained to drive a truck, they can be trained to perform another task. Truck drivers are not lobotomized.
> I disagree. They had to attend class and pass a test to get a CDL. They were trained to drive a truck, they can be trained to perform another task. Truck drivers are not lobotomized.
I don't think the difficulty is with the drivers, more with the logistics of retraining them all at once. As a cohort they came up through their class and training nicely spread out over, what, a 40 year period? Making sure there are that many training spaces for other trades over a much more condensed period is non-trivial.
Jobs are not a zero sum equation. Six million unemployed workers, means six million units of production looking for an outlet that was not previously feasible due to a shortage of available labor
This doesn't sound terribly different from eg Alaska's Permanent Fund payouts? The main difference seems to be that PF payments fluctuate a lot, while the Marshalls plan seems to be a fixed, predictable sum.
It is very similar but works differently. Also the two programs do not have the same intent.
The US has a Compact of Free Assocation (COFA) with the Marshall Islands, which provides a lot of the funds for this. Versus Alaska where it is paid for by natural resource extraction. All that said, it is the government of the Marshall Islands making the decision to pay it out this way.
From the US point of view, this is a good program because it incentivizes people from the Marshall Islands to stay put rather than emigrate to the US mainland (which they have a right to do under the COFA).
>From the US point of view, this is a good program because it incentivizes people from the Marshall Islands to stay put rather than emigrate to the US mainland
Why is this a good thing? Naively, as an American citizen, I would rather have someone emigrate and work in America where they can provide additional labor to the mainland economy
The US is competing with China in the Pacific. Keeping those islands healthily populated by USA-sympathizers helps maintains overall US influence in the region.
While what's good for a tiny island might not be good for the gander, I like the attached cost analysis of a negative income tax. The author points out that this might be a more practical way to deliver a basic income, and more amenable to both sides of the argument.
And at more or less no greater cost than the welfare system at time of writing. I wonder how the numbers would shake out now?
It can be called whatever someone wants and it can be delivered various ways, but its still functionally the same thing.
Headlines latch on to the term UBI, and people largely are parrots so they argue about UBI specifically as well, but at the end of the day the question is whether its a good and sustainable idea for the government to decide what our basic necessities are then pay us so we can buy them.
You just mean food stamps, right? We already have that in the US.
I often see people in my area chest that program. I know when food stamps were sent out or refilled because multiple people are at Walmart with a cart full of sodas. They buy as many as they can and sell it to friends or family to have the cash instead.
> because multiple people are at Walmart with a cart full of sodas. They buy as many as they can and sell it to friends or family to have the cash instead.
Some do that, yes - not everybody can (eg: small communities, limited travel, few people with cash that want to buy basics)
If my tax dollars have to pay for war crimes and the Epstein memorial ballroom then I'd happily pay for people to be able to eat, drink and live. I sure as hell don't trust corporations and the "free market" to ensure the common welfare.
I believe that governments have an obligation to their citizens beyond simply taxation and violence, and that the social contract goes both ways. I understand that I'm in the minority of Americans in this belief.
The government should have an obligation to not waste our money. Let's start with balancing the budget, letting elected Congress again hold the purse stings and war responsibilities, then we can talk about more spending.
I can't justify more debt spending because we already waste money on stuff I disagree with.
In practice every time someone goes to Washington to "clean house" the first things to get gutted are welfare and funding for science and research, because unfortunately a lot of Americans consider all of that to be waste. Never the military, never the police, never the pork.
Edit: LoganDark4 replied but I got an error when submitting my reply to them, so including here:
> Even the smallest crappiest studios in most areas exceed $800/mo. Then you also have utilities and food before you even approach comfortable living.
Multiple percent of the population in the small Pacific country we're discussing lives on <$3/day (<$90/mo).
> Universal basic income means something you can live on.… UBI means you don't need external support to sustain comfortable living. That's its entire purpose.
From the very first paragraph of the link you replied to: "If the level is sufficient to meet a person's basic needs (i.e., at or above the poverty line), it is considered a full basic income; if it is less than that amount, it is called a partial basic income."
This page https://wage.is/marshall-islands/ claims the average is US$168000 per year and the median US$9600 per year. [My guess is that the poverty line is close to US$5000 per year, probably higher.] This program adds US$800 per year. So it's a "universal partial basic income" instead of a "universal total basic income".
In all the discussion I remember, "universal basic income" == "universal total basic income" but perhaps I was not paying too much attention.
Your link is to the term universal. From the reporting, this payment goes to all citizens including children. Perhaps you could more clearly state your objection?
No, I don't know what you mean - is your objection that people who aren't from the Marshall Islands don't receive it? UBI going to citizens as opposed to others seems to be very common: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income
And there is no need for insults.
No, I don't know what you mean - is your objection that people who aren't from the Marshall Islands don't receive it? UBI going to citizens as opposed to others seems to be very common: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income
And there is no need for insults.
Also, 6 million people forced to spend their waking lives driving trucks is not a good thing. The thing that's good about that is the income they get from it. If we create enough wealth to give them the income without the truck driving... We won? That's the goal here. That's what the economy is _for_. Employment is the way the economy has always achieved that, but it doesn't meant employment is the goal, it's a means to an end.
We need to keep in mind the scope and scale of the environments in which this UBI experiment is being tried in.
The temporary success or failure of the UBI experiment seems entirely dependent on whether the country is a major currency, a manufacturing base, a service oriented economy, etc, etc, etc. and it doesn't seem likely to work for everyone, or for any individual small nation for an indefinite period of time.
> there is realistically no way to retrain this cohort. [truck drivers]
I disagree. They had to attend class and pass a test to get a CDL. They were trained to drive a truck, they can be trained to perform another task. Truck drivers are not lobotomized.
I don't think the difficulty is with the drivers, more with the logistics of retraining them all at once. As a cohort they came up through their class and training nicely spread out over, what, a 40 year period? Making sure there are that many training spaces for other trades over a much more condensed period is non-trivial.
The only events that happen "all at once" are in our heads as hypotheticals.
In the real world, every change takes time to propagate.
The US has a Compact of Free Assocation (COFA) with the Marshall Islands, which provides a lot of the funds for this. Versus Alaska where it is paid for by natural resource extraction. All that said, it is the government of the Marshall Islands making the decision to pay it out this way.
From the US point of view, this is a good program because it incentivizes people from the Marshall Islands to stay put rather than emigrate to the US mainland (which they have a right to do under the COFA).
Why is this a good thing? Naively, as an American citizen, I would rather have someone emigrate and work in America where they can provide additional labor to the mainland economy
And at more or less no greater cost than the welfare system at time of writing. I wonder how the numbers would shake out now?
https://martin-farley.medium.com/how-a-negative-income-tax-c...
If you have negative income tax and you create 0 taxable value, how much do you receive?
Headlines latch on to the term UBI, and people largely are parrots so they argue about UBI specifically as well, but at the end of the day the question is whether its a good and sustainable idea for the government to decide what our basic necessities are then pay us so we can buy them.
> then pay us so we can buy them.
If a government pays out money then people can buy whatever they chose, not just food, clothing, and shelter.
Some governments have implemented schemes that issue variations on constrained cards (not generic money) that can only be used to obtain "necessities"
I often see people in my area chest that program. I know when food stamps were sent out or refilled because multiple people are at Walmart with a cart full of sodas. They buy as many as they can and sell it to friends or family to have the cash instead.
A variation of.
> We already have that in the US.
Dandy. It's different to cash.
> because multiple people are at Walmart with a cart full of sodas. They buy as many as they can and sell it to friends or family to have the cash instead.
Some do that, yes - not everybody can (eg: small communities, limited travel, few people with cash that want to buy basics)
I believe that governments have an obligation to their citizens beyond simply taxation and violence, and that the social contract goes both ways. I understand that I'm in the minority of Americans in this belief.
I can't justify more debt spending because we already waste money on stuff I disagree with.
In practice every time someone goes to Washington to "clean house" the first things to get gutted are welfare and funding for science and research, because unfortunately a lot of Americans consider all of that to be waste. Never the military, never the police, never the pork.
We almost have that with the earned income tax credit. The catch is you have to work: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-in...
Which word(s)? From the reports I've seen, it's available to all citizens, and it's one of the 2 kinds of UBI. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income
Edit: LoganDark4 replied but I got an error when submitting my reply to them, so including here:
> Even the smallest crappiest studios in most areas exceed $800/mo. Then you also have utilities and food before you even approach comfortable living.
Multiple percent of the population in the small Pacific country we're discussing lives on <$3/day (<$90/mo).
> Universal basic income means something you can live on.… UBI means you don't need external support to sustain comfortable living. That's its entire purpose.
From the very first paragraph of the link you replied to: "If the level is sufficient to meet a person's basic needs (i.e., at or above the poverty line), it is considered a full basic income; if it is less than that amount, it is called a partial basic income."
Details aren't as sexy as the headline would lead one to believe.
This UBI is 37% of the poverty line, and the % living in poverty has dropped from 7.2% to 1.3%. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0997063042125181...
In all the discussion I remember, "universal basic income" == "universal total basic income" but perhaps I was not paying too much attention.
This payment is 37% of the poverty line. Poverty has been reduced from 7.2% to 1.3%. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0997063042125181...